It is a consistent story across carriers and across the country, Social Security disability awards are down, but is it really awards, or is it decisions in general as we suggested in our July 2021 newsletter Social Security State of Affairs – DCKA Quarterly Newsletter? Is there now a backlog at the Initial claim and Reconsideration claim level of appeal?
We took a deep dive into Social Security State Agency Monthly Workload data to compare January – August 2019, January – August 2020, and January – August 2021 to see what is really happening in terms of Initial claim (IC) and Reconsideration claim (RC) receipts, decisions, award rates, and pending. We analyzed the data overall and broke it out by State and by Region (excluding federal components). The dataset can be found here, SSA State Agency Monthly Workload Data. The key findings support our earlier analysis, which is at the earlier levels of the Social Security disability process filings are flat or have only modestly increased, while pending claims are up significantly and thus award volumes are down.
There is some good news that overtime has recently been reinstated which should help in processing awards but just yesterday Congress passed a Continuing Resolution (CR) which will allow the government to spend money at the same rate as in Fiscal Year 2021 until December 3rd. Prior to this there was some hope that if the SS budget passed now there would be more immediate funding to process the cases pending at the IC and RC but with this CR there is no special additional funding earmarked for SS. Therefore it will be a while still to reduce this backlog at the initial claim and reconsideration levels.
Initial Claim Data:
- Social Security (SSDI) Initial Claim filings were down 2% from 2019 to 2020, but are even from 2019 to 2021.
- Social Security (SSDI) Decisions were down 14% from 2019 to 2020, and were down 8% from 2019 to 2021 (decisions are up 2020 to 2021 – so trending back up, but overall still down from 2019 decisions).
- Number of Awards (this is volume) were down 6% from 2019 to 2020, and down 11% 2019 to 2021.
- Overall the SSDI award rate was up 3.8% from 2019 to 2020, but down 1% from 2019 to 2021. The award rate from 2020 to 2021 is down 4.92% (so while decisions are up more denials are being processed).
- IC Pending is up 24% from 2019 to 2020, and up 36% from 2019 to 2021. This is the big story that illustrates decisions are delayed because IC receipts are steady but pending is up 36% over the same time period.
Reconsideration Claim Data:
- Social Security (SSDI) Reconsideration filings were down 3% from 2019 to 2020, but were up 13% from 2019 to 2021 (an increase of 15% from 2020 to 2021). This number is likely impacted because 10 states which did not have Recon previously now have added the Recon step.
- Social Security Recon Decisions were up 4% from 2019 to 2020, and were unchanged from 2019 to 2021 (decisions are down 4% from 2020 to 2021)
- Number of Recon Awards (this is volume) were up 11% from 2019 to 2020, and down 5% 2019 to 2021 (a decline in awards of 15% from 2020 to 2021)
- Overall the SSDI award rate was up 1% from 2019 to 2020, and down .85% from 2019 to 2021. The award rate from 2020 to 2021 is down 1.93% (so while decisions are up more denials are being processed).
- RC Pending is up 31% from 2019 to 2020, and up 64% from 2019 to 2021. Again this illustrates that Social Security is not making decisions. Recon receipts are up 13% while pending is up 64% over the same period. But again this number likely affected because 10 states which did not have Recon previously now have added the Recon step.
SSDI Initial Claim data by Region 2019 to 2021- Excluding Federal Components (Regional breakdown code by State included below)*:
ATL region: filings are up 10%, and determinations are down 16% and Awards down 17% while pending is up 54% (award rate down slightly .7%)
BOS region: filings are down 8%, and determinations are down 9% and Awards down 11% while pending is up 17% (award rate down slightly 1.5%)
CHI region: filings are down 7% and determinations are down 10% and Awards down 11% while pending is up 32% (award rate down slightly .65%)
DAL region: filings are up 8% and determinations are down 2% and Awards down 6% while pending is up 43% (award rate down slightly 1.67%)
DEN region: filings are up 13% and determinations are up 13% and Awards down 2% while pending is up 37% (award rate down 6.14%)
KCM region: filings are up 2% and determinations are up 7% and Awards even while pending is up 47% (award rate down 3.25%)
NYC region: filings are down 4% and determinations are up 6% and Awards even while pending is up 28% (award rate down slightly 2.9%)
PHL region: filings are down 4% and determinations are down 7% and Awards are down 12% while pending is up 27% (award rate down 2.47%)
SEA region: filings are down 3% and determinations are down 34% and Awards are down 28% while pending is up 27% (award rate is up 4.21%)
SFO region: filings are down 11% and determinations are down 14% and Awards are down 12% while pending is up 23% (award rate is down .71%)
Hearing Data July 2019 compared to August 2020 and August 2021:
Hearings are being processed! Processing time and the backlog has been reduced significantly.
Processing time decreased from 2019 to 2021 by 36.7% (2019 to 2020 decrease of 22%, and 2020 to 2021 decrease of 17.8%)
Hearing Pending from 2019 to 2021 decreased by 51.2%, (2019 to 2020 decrease of 32.9% and 2020 to 2021 decrease of 27.3%)
DISP/ADJ receipts 2019 to 2021 decreased by 24%, (2019 to 2020 decrease of 12.8% and 2020 to 2021 decrease of 13.2%)
*The Region Code is one of the following eleven codes
ATL: Atlanta Region (SSA Region 4), includes AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN.
BOS: Boston Region (SSA Region 1), includes CT, MA ME, NH, RI, VT.
CHI: Chicago Region (SSA Region 5), includes IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI.
DAL: Dallas Region (SSA Region 6), includes AR, LA, NM, OK, TX.
DEN: Denver Region (SSA Region 8), includes CO, MT, ND, ST, UT, WY.
FED: Not a state agency, includes all federal components making disability claims determinations. A state designation of FE used to indicate collectively all federal disability processing components. The FED designation exists for comprehensive presentation purposes and is not an SSA administrative region. Other datasets for initial disability claims processing might not include FED processed cases.
KCM: Kansas City Region (SSA Region 7), includes IA, KS, MO, NE.
NYC: New York Region (SSA Region 2), includes NJ, NY, PR.
PHL: Philadelphia Region (SSA Region 3), includes DC, DE, MD, PA, VA, WV.
SEA: Seattle Region (SSA Region 10), includes AK, ID, OR, WA.
SFO: San Francisco Region (SSA Region 9), includes AZ, CA, GU, HI, NV